Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Resurrection...


My first day back to bloggersville and I have a few observations:

The blogs are still PO'd at GWB. I admire people like Sarah and Betmo who have declared their sites politics and or Bush-free zones. It is such the tired subject. Every time I jump to a blog and its an Anti-Bush rant I tend to click away real quick. Not because I defend him,.. God knows i've opened some nice new orifices on him the past few weeks (oh no.. now its me the Secret Service will be after, Ellie...). Its just that the echo chamber has nothing new. Nothing. But here's something I mentioned today at Ellie's blog. Bush is on the rise. There is a convergence of events that may turn out to be a perfect storm for the Dems. Like them or not, the team of Josh Bolten and Tony Snow has snazzed up the Administration's image. At least to the real deciders of the elections, those dang independents. Here is my reasoning.

1. Has anybody noticed his poll numbers have gone up 8 points in under 2 months?... of course not. And people say the media in not biased. How many times you read this headline "Bush approval ratings fall to new low...", yet I've still to read a major editorial espousing his number's jump.
2. Rove is indictiment-free and can concentrate on what he does best, get back into Bush's brain and create deep worries to Carville and co. Rove may be many unmentionable things, but to deny he is an electoral math wizard is having your head stuck in the sand. A worry-free Rove does not bode well for the left.
3. Immigration. Now that he is pushing for English as the national language and National Guardsmen at the border, he is finally appealing to the red-blood Repubs and half the Blue-dog democrats who agree on this most nationalistic of issues. Once his approval numbers jump above 40% again he unleashed maddog Cheney onto Dennis Hastert and they will quickly fall into lockstep with a conference Bill. If its signed by October then the base begins to hope again. You think the dune buggy moment was corny? Watch the photo-op he pulls with Sherrif Arpaio in pink prisoner underwear.... and with all that jogging he does, you know he has the legs to pull it off...
4. Iraq. Call me a dumb-ass Troll but I see the thing turning. New Government, regular people turning in information against the terrorists, ... in spite of the up-spike of bombs, the hit on Zarquawi was HUGE. I've read 5th Estate's opinion that we killed a fly with a hatchet instead of capturing him and getting info... are you kidding me? think of the security issues, the mad bombers nuking every thing in site, the jihad marches in the Arab streets demanding his release,... TWO public trial instead of one.... no way. I'm glad he is room temperature. Lets see him try to do a clitoridectomy's on the 72 virgins up in Allah's presence. That's a popcorn moment if there ever was one.
5. Think of the way the Bolten/Snow team is milking news. They are creating news cycles, not reacting to them. Every 10 minutes there is another "good" story out. The Republican Congressional victory in California, Good economy, Bush surprise visit to Iraq, Zarquawi's sleeping with the fishes, National Guards building border fences, .... Tony Snow knows how to do this. Remember, he was mostly in charge of the daily message during Bush 41's Panama incursion. He knows the buzz words, he knows the news cycle ebb and tides, and most important he knows how to dress up a turd, no matter how bad it smells. Be afraid,... be very afraid.

Ok, no more Bush topics (well, at least until someone makes me...) Tomorrow is my long-awaited "Persona de la semana" version 2. ..... feels good to be back.

21 comments:

betmo said...

good to have you back. i am taking a short break from writing to research and recharge. had a bit of a dust up with a friend of mine on life's journey- and continued in email-so i am a bit tapped. i'll make the rounds and be around- but i want to make sure i do the subject justice. i don't bash bush because i sincerely don't believe he is in charge of anything. cheney, rumsfeld and rove are all fair fodder and they are no laughing matter. bush is just the frontman- and that's my final answer, meredith :)

Truth-Pain said...

Betmo:
I know fully the joys of a mental re-charge and the wonders that come with taking a step back to focus on certain things. I really look forward to what you come back with. Your postings are always fun and insightful, regardless if I agree with them or not.
I'm still working on that long-awaited NSA piece we discussed awhile back,... but man is that thing copious. I have to edit the sucker down... :)

Mike's America said...

If you're tired of the Bush bashing (from the folks on OUR side) you might think about joining the VICTORY blogroll:

http://mikesamerica.blogspot.com/2006/05/victory-or-defeat-i-choose-victory.html

Check the links back to the original site.

You don't have to agree 100% with President Bush (who does?) but 2006 is KEY CRITICAL VITAL SUPER IMPORTANT! Can't divide our strength and win.

betmo said...

i'm thinking of putting mine in installments at this point- global wednesdays or something :) good luck!

Ellie said...

welcome back!!!

i responded to you over at my place, I had forgotten about Carville. I said that the democrats need a Rove, but Carville is the equivalent. I think Rove is better at what he does, but at least we have someone. I dont' think Carville will resort to the means that Rove will. I couldn't see Carville stealing an election. but you never know....

The Democrats need to convey to the American people that just because Zarqawi is dead, our problems in Iraq aren't over. They'll probably be labeled as the bearers of bad news and no one will listen, but somehow they need to take away the momentum of the rising popularity of Bush. I really hope some Democrats speak out and keep his numbers low. i would hate to see his approval rating go above 40%. He just doesn't deserve it.

as for the slanted media... it is not slanted toward the Democrats. Did you once hear a reporter say that Cheney shot someone? On Air America they were commenting on the ridiculous ways that they expressed it ranging from "peppered with bird shot" to my favorite "carried a load of bird shot". Does not sound like he shot someone. on that note, I was listening to leno a couple of days ago and he was talking about Cheney testifying at Scooter Libby's trial. People were wondering if he would stab Libby in the back. Leno says no, Cheney doesn't stab people in the back, he shoots them in the face. :) (I know you don't like the bashing, but I thought that one was hilarious)

btw, I think the secret service is going to get us all at one point. :)

Truth-Pain said...

Mike: Thanks for the visit and welcome to Casa de Truth-Pain, where all opinions are at the mercy of my "delete" button :)
Appreciate the links. I will visit soon.

Truth-Pain said...

Betmo,
Sometimes its better to do a series... I actually prefer that so as not to bore the audience with a lenghty diatribe, no matter how entertaining i may think it is :)

betmo said...

i have recently found a couple of 'right' leaning blogs i put on- one i believe said he was a libertarian. don't want you to be lonely :) pub seems stuck on the immigration thing.

The WordSmith from Nantucket said...


The Democrats need to convey to the American people that just because Zarqawi is dead, our problems in Iraq aren't over. They'll probably be labeled as the bearers of bad news


Ellie, that's mostly what the media has been saying. It's a "no frikkin' duh" moment that problems in Iraq are far from over. Even the President, wisely, downplayed the great news, lest he have another "Mission Accomplished" or "the insurgency is in its final throes" moment. For anyone to make that statement, minimizing the significance of killing Zarqawi, is to state the obvious...and yes, to perpetually see the glass as half empty. People have been riding this Administration hard for not snuffing out thugs like Zarqawi or Osama; but when we finally kill or capture another terrorist in the al Qaeda leadership ranks, it's suddenly not a big deal. Why was it a big deal when he was slaughtering Iraqi civilians and causing sectarian strife; and now that he won't be the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, the media doesn't really care? Why? Because the media is largely liberal and largely anti-Bush.

Truth-Pain said...

Ellie: I think Carville is more of a political tactician than an election strategist. I think one of the best guys for the Demos is Donna Brazille,... if she ever drops her ego to just do the electoral math and stop trying to manage campaigns you would be in business. In spite of her "white cracker" remark I think she is a pretty sharp woman.
As to the Demos, they are in quite the quandry. If they are negative they are anti patriotic, if they are supportive of the war in any measure then the left thinks theyve sold out. There really is no wiggle room. I think they have to choose the message and hunker down no matter the bombs that come flying in.

Truth-Pain said...

Betmo! You found me some playmates?.... I knew I wasnt wasting my minutes with you :)
Yeah, Publius is riding that horse till the horseshoes come off. I have to give him credit for staying on message and pounding away at it from every angle. People can disagree with him all they want but he is not shrill. His points are very well made and backs it up with mega hardware.

Truth-Pain said...

Wordsmith: Welcome to casa de Truth-Pain. I see youve made yourself right at home at Ellie's expense. I hope you can go to her site and read some of her postings. She may be diametrically opposed to you in politics but I think you will find her opinions to be a very reasoned voice.
Thanks for dropping in.

Rosemary said...

What people seem to forget when they are planning for elections is the BASE. It does not matter which party you are in. They seem to go after the 'independents' which are not, indeed, independent at all. Most of them don't even vote. Sheesh.

I loved his speech to the men in Iraq, I hate his policy on amnesty, I like Hastert saying, "We should read the Senate bill" on amnesty. Well, DUH! It's about time someone actually READ something BEFORE voting one way or the other! lol.

BTW, do you think there are more important issues at hand than flag-burning and marriage amendments we know are not going to pass? Good grief. How about some JUDGES?

How are you doing, Truth-Pain? I pray all is well. I am fine. It's good to have you back. :)

betmo said...

i am discouraged that no one is focused on the fact that american's rights are being eroded- and no one has stopped to consider that there are better ways to protect this country than giving up the citizen's freedom. i am tired of the right always thinking that their ways are better and the left never listening to anyone else because they are so busy shrieking about something. we should not be reaching out to the 'bases' because that is what got us into this mess in the first place. we should be reaching out to the moderates. they are our last great hope for some stability and civility in this country. if the left and right bases don't like it- then too damned bad.

Ellie said...

People have been riding this Administration hard for not snuffing out thugs like Zarqawi or Osama; but when we finally kill or capture another terrorist in the al Qaeda leadership ranks, it's suddenly not a big deal.

wordsmith - why shouldn't people ride the administration hard to snuff out these thugs? Isn't this their job? Osama has been out there for almost five years now and still he hasn't been found. Of course it is a big deal that Zarqawi has been killed, however we have to focus on the future and on the fact that Zarqawi has now been replaced. Yes, this was a political victory for Bush, and it is allowing him to gain some political momentum. However, Zarqawi's death cannot be allowed to override the fact that things in Iraq are still bad and that the insurgency is not over just because Zarqawi is dead.

as for the slant of the media, the other day I was listening to the news and on Fox Five they advertised for a news story coming up saying that there were blasts heard at ground zero. I then changed the channel to nbc and they announced the same story as a gas explosion (or something of that kind) at ground zero. Sensing any bias? When was the last time you heard a body count out of Iraq? The total has now reached 2,500 Americans killed, yet I didn't see a major news story on that. Wouldn't that be something the liberals would want on the front page of every newspaper in every city in the USA? Yet, it's not. Hence, conservative media.

truth-pain - thanks for the props. :)

Publius said...

Zarqawi was more dangerous because he was trying to grow and spread terrorism from Iraq to Europe, Canada, and the U.S. while Osama is trying to survive. Osama is more important as a figure head, a ghost of the movement that we can not find or capture. He is the modern day Boogie Man.

But, truth I disagree with you, I don’t know what Bush has done for his approval ratings to have gone up. I was one of his biggest defenders; I would have long and brutal arguments with my classmates and professors in graduate school about why people should vote for him over Kerry. I had a Bush/Cheney 2000 sign in my window at college so everyone driving down the road could see it. I was a radio DJ for two years when I spoke on the radio about my support for Bush. I was even his supporter up until the night he gave him immigration speech. I wrote a letter to the President that Sunday thanking him for standing up for America and putting National Guardsmen along the border and for professing to be against Amnesty. Then he gave his speech where he said very clearly and openly that he was for Amnesty although he didn’t want to call it that.
Bush would have to go to Afghanistan now and walk out of a cave holding Osama’s blood head before I am going to support him again. When Bush loses people like me then you know he is in the tank.
We have a saying here in Virginia, I think they have the saying in Texas too, its fool me once uh shame on you, uh fool me twice, uh, you can’t fool me again.

Truth-Pain said...

Man what a week, last day at my old job so virtually no time to write,...
Rosemarie: I think both parties go after the independents early becuase they know most of the base will stay at home and give the usual financial support. What i call the Indys or swing voters are those Reagan Democrat types who straddle the fence for a year and dont really have a blooline ideology but vote on late-second instincts. To me those votes are what wins elections. But i could be wrong.
(p.s. i will be posting my first one at your blog tonight :)

Betmo: We are such the lonely wolves on this. I am so for the reaching and compromise. Not because I am a linguini-spined voter as Rush would call a "moderate" but because i prefer to get half of something than nothing at all. I think i can get together with a liberal or a communist and bang out a treaty that we both can live with in spite of both not being 100% happy with it.... heck, who is 100% happy with ANYthing in life?

Truth-Pain said...

Ellie:
I do think the media is biased in some ways but I dont see a boogie-man effect to us... at least the well-read types who give a damn and read a variety of news sources before they come to a conclussion. Those who have Fox or CBS news on all they and drink the Kool Aid deserve getting brain licked. One has to remember that news is not merely news any more. It has morphed into news-entertainment and one must be careful in thinking that all we see is unbiased "hard" news.
I agree it is good to pound at any administration for what you believe is your voice. Besides sadition or treason I see no ant-patriotism in raising your standard of idea and pelting world with it. Liberty stands when a nation holds no quarter against those attempting to pacify it.

Truth-Pain said...

Publius:
I hear what you are saying. My overall argument on why his poll numbers are going up (40% yesterday as I predicted) is that most people just have visceral reactions to how good of a job a President is doing based on little snippets of news and how they feel that day,...not because they have done any serious homework.
As to Bush dissapointing you?... Brother, I feel ya'... Reagan did the same thing to me in 84 and Bush 41 nailed me with his "read my lips, no new taxes" bit... thats when i left the Republican party.

Publius said...

I have yet to see that his approval rating is at 40%, even if it was conducted only among his staff, family, and Fox News it couldn’t be at 40%. The higher his approval rating goes the more likely his and the Senate’s amnesty plan will go through because Congress will feel the pressure. That is why I am not going to support this guy again. The immigration story might have hit the backburner with the media but not me.

Truth-Pain said...

Publius: That is one thing we can agree on. I am eager to see him out of office as I am neither a fan or have ever voted for the man.